As this is my last column of 2007 I thought it would be nice to put on my Santa suit, switch on the Christmas lights and say a few cheery words about the prospects for seasonal trading.
The trouble is that every retailer who’s passed my grotto lately has described business – and the portents for business – in just two words, one of which has been “terrible”. So, if you wear a belt, it would be a really good time to cut another hole in it ready for tightening in the months ahead.
Because unless you are deaf, dumb and blind, or on mind-expanding drugs, it’s quite hard to avoid feeling that times could take a turn for the worse – and quickly.
The weakness of the US dollar, the spreading after-shocks of the credit crunch, the soaring cost of oil (forecasted to keep climbing), all provide convincing evidence for caution, if not undiluted gloom.
The oil price is especially disturbing, hitting as it does the cost of delivering everyone’s raw materials and finished products. Unfortunately, it also manages to find its way into so many other things. From the foam in sofas and mattresses where so many lives begin, to condoms that try to prevent that occurrence, right through to the plastic handles on your coffin as it sits on the crematorium conveyor belt. It is a key ingredient in falling consumer confidence.
The signs are all around us pointing ominously towards lots of nasties. Indeed, the only bright spot I can see is that even Gordon Brown won’t be able to duck the blame for all of them.
And the environmentalists will be gibbering with ecstasy if we all learn to do without oil and go back to growing our own vegetables and wearing woad (as in body paint, not the street where Jonathan Ross lives).
I’m optimistic by nature, but even I have to concede that it’s got to make sense to prepare for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best. History shows us that even the foulest of storms can be weathered if we are prepared with a big enough mac and a stout pair of wellies (or waders).
I’ve survived some pretty tough patches in nearly 40 years of retail and delight in knowing that even from the harshest of times spring opportunities for those who remain alert and react quickly and creatively. However, a robust business model is a must, together with a strong reputation, committed people and a non-stop focus on efficiency. All this plus a resilient sense of humour.
So let’s treat it as a test – a sort of economic fire drill – and spare a bit of sympathy for those younger people who thought they were always going to have it easy.
For now, the show must go on. So turn on those lights, don your pixie suits, broaden your grins, listen for the tinkling of the tills and join me in wishing every reader and customer a very Merry Christmas.
Lord KirkHam, Chairman, DFS
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