Will a warm spring and early summer spending lead to a long winter for fashion?

The fashion giant delivered another better-than-expected quarterly performance for the 13 weeks to April 26, 2025. Next also reported an 11.4% surge in sales versus the previous year, £55m ahead of its prediction for the period.

And with a sunny spell arriving just in time for the Easter holidays, retailers across the board were reaping the reward. With footfall in April up 4.3% year on year across all UK retail destinations, according to the latest MRI Software data, customers inevitably flocked to high streets, shopping centres and retail parks alike to stock up on their spring/summer essentials.

However, Next’s chief executive Lord Wolfson said the period was something of an “over-performance” for summer clothing sales during the first quarter thanks to the warm spell. “It is likely that some of these sales have been pulled forward from Q2,” he said. 

So while April clearly delivered a boost for UK retail, particularly for fashion as shoppers looked to spruce up their summer wardrobes, is the early head-start going to prove a hindrance for the rest of the year? 

Oh sunny days

It would be fair to say that fashion retailers rely on the weather more than most when it comes to sales performance and so a bright and sunny weather forecast is always welcomed on mass.

And last week Next was the first to come out and say that it is not increasing its sales guidance for the second quarter and beyond this financial year, a trend expected to continue among the fashion retailers, after the first quarter exceeded expectations when it came to the sale of summer clothing.

“Sales in our retail shops have been much stronger than we expected but, in our experience, shops benefit disproportionately from the favourable weather,” said Wolfson. “So we are expecting our retail sales to return to being broadly flat for the rest of the year. 

“We have not revised our expectations for the rest of the year, because we think some of the overachievement in Q1 will have pulled forward sales of summer-weight products from Q2.” 

And this is something Shore Capital director Clive Black points out is an early win but inevitably will take toll on sales later in the year. 

He said: “I think it’s sensible to suggest there has been good full price sales of spring/summer ranges so far. I don’t sense they [customers] are going to double up and buy the same in May and June, so I think Next has been grounded that some sales you’d expect between March and June have come early.” 

Next only?

Retail analyst and consultant Maureen Hinton emphasises this and says this slower trend of sales later into the summer is likely to spike across the fashion sector if it’s something that’s impacted the powerhouse that is Next.

She adds that while the impact of the ongoing cyber attack on retail giant Marks & Spencer was not mentioned as a factor in Next’s most recent update, the retailer is likely to be a big winner from its online woes as the pair have a similar customer base.  

This however, is likely to be an individual benefit to Next and not necessarily something that will translate across other areas of the market, she adds.

“I think the Next boat is floating higher than most at the moment”

Clive Black, director, Shore Capital 

One senior fashion retailer said that while sales have slowed in the past couple of weeks post-Easter, they have started “building again”. This has been echoed across the market as the general feeling is that fashion retail is optimistic for not just the summer but the year ahead. 

Black points out that while the market conditions and weather has impacted Next just like these factors will have impacted its rivals, Next is “really well oiled” and exceeding the performance of many others. 

“I don’t think everyone else is performing as well. Next is saying it’s been good and all boats float in the rising tide but at the same time I think the Next boat is floating higher than most at the moment.” 

So with consumer confidence and the weather proving to present turbulence and unpredictable factors across fashion, it remains to be seen the impact this has had on those fashion retailers yet to update on their current trading and outlook for the year ahead.