Golden Triangle

On a good day, Dunfermline is about half an hour’s drive from Livingston and both towns, one north of the river Forth and one south, are about half an hour from Edinburgh. This is the Scottish east coast’s golden triangle – a tightly focused and fast-growing slice of the country’s central belt – and one that is in the midst of a retail development boom.

Dunfermline’s£50 million Kingsgate extension opens next summer, while Land Securities’£130 million The Elements scheme in Livingston opens in October next year. Both are intended to capitalise on an under-shopped and increasingly wealthy slice of the Edinburgh commuter-belt.

Livingston’s reputation as a not-very-inspiring new town belies its growing affluence. With a 900,000 catchment population within half an hour’s drive and nearly 2 million within an hour, the town is within reach of nearly half the Scottish population. Already, large numbers of people travel long distances to get to Livingston, drawn to the high-fashion labels at the 285,000 sq ft (26,475 sq m) McArthur Glen shopping scheme owned by Morley and Land Securities.

Thanks to a population projected to grow from 166,000 to 196,000 by 2024, comparison goods spending in the town is rocketing towards£500 million already. According to the Royal Bank of Scotland’s affordable affluence survey, Livingston’s shops, car parking and motorways have made it a magnet for the young and upwardly mobile. It is positioned at 20th in the UK in the bank’s retail rankings, not far behind Chester.

The Elements adds 375,000 sq ft (34,840 sq m) to Livingston’s existing 700,000 sq ft (65,030 sq m) Almondvale Centre, also owned by Land Securities. Occupying the site of a former Safeway supermarket, it links the McArthur Glen scheme to the main Almondvale mall and brings total retail space in the town to almost 1.6 million sq ft (148,640 sq m).

Anchored by Debenhams and Marks & Spencer – the town’s first department stores – which both have 90,000 sq ft (8,360 sq m) shops, a lettings campaign is now under way for the remaining 30 stores.

Land Securities leasing director David Smith explains: “Livingston has become a regional shopping destination. Historically, there was leakage of retail spending to Edinburgh. Today, we know the town is attracting customers from a much wider catchment.”

“We have created the kind of big-box units that fashion retailers want and, unusually, are extending into the town’s prime pitch, making us an ideal location.”

Asking rents are£120 Zone A – a step up from the town’s present ceiling, which is a fraction above£100 Zone A. The first pre-let announcements are likely to be for the restaurant units, for which deals could be concluded in October.

Retail associate at surveyor Ryden, John Conroy, who is an adviser on the neighbouring 13,000 sq ft (1,210 sq m) Parkway scheme, created on the site of the former Safeway petrol station, says Livingston has plenty more growing to do. “For a long time, Livingston was Edinburgh’s poorer cousin. Now, it’s a draw in its own right. It’s got plenty of parking, a growing population and is easy to get to, which means it is increasingly popular with customers, especially younger customers,” he says.

Livingston still has some way to go: wages are about 10 per cent below the Scottish average. Even so, unemployment has plunged, incomes are rising steadily and the mood is upbeat.

Increasingly affluent, young, car-focused customers are in mind for the redevelopment in Dunfermline, too. As in Livingston, an extension to the dominant shopping centre anchored by a new Debenhams store has provided a way to expand the retail offer.

Irish landlord Mivan is adding another 170,000 sq ft (15,795 sq m) to the town’s Kingsgate Shopping Centre, doubling the retail floorspace to 370,000 sq ft (34,375 sq m). The extension is expected to increase Dunfermline’s market share substantially, from 57 per cent to 74 per cent. Leakage to Edinburgh will dwindle to a modest 5 per cent and leakage to Livingston’s McArthur Glenn mall will shrink from more than 4 per cent to less than 3 per cent.

Hot property

According to Stuart Moncur, director at Cushman & Wakefield, which is joint letting agent with Eric Young & Co, the extension will improve Dunfermline’s Scottish retail ranking. Comparison goods spending in the town will kick Dunfermline from 17th place to 11th, above Stirling and Kirkcaldy. Given this analysis, Standard Life, owner of the 500,000 sq ft (46,450 sq m) Thistles shopping centre in Stirling, needs to be on its guard.

With Dunfermline’s catchment population growing from 60,000 to 82,000 and its comparison spending up 42 per cent to£208 million, the town is a good place to build, says Moncur. “Dunfermline is one of the fastest-growing towns in Scotland, with a great many affluent commuters moving in from Edinburgh because house prices here are cheaper.

“We expect the new Kingsgate catchment to extend east into Fife and towards Falkirk and Perth, rather than south of the Forth,” he continues. “But it will certainly make its impact felt throughout the eastern side of Scotland’s central belt.”

Rents are still some way behind Livingston at£95 to£100 for Zone A. Eight retailers are said to be close to finalising deals in the 27-unit extension. They will join the 70,000 sq ft (6,505 sq m) Debenhams and 17,000 sq ft (1,580 sq m) New Look on the tenant line-up. The extension is also supported by a multi-storey car park with more than 700 spaces.

Kingsgate had been expected to face competition from a 150,000 sq ft (13,935 sq m) mixed-use scheme on Queen Anne Street. Edinburgh-based Macdonald Estates won planning permission for the retail-led scheme in 2004, but was timed out of the development by Fife Council last year. The site is now – somewhat controversially – earmarked to become a£6.3 million bus station.

Macdonald development manager Niall McLean says that Dunfermline will be a retail hot spot.
He explains: “Dunfermline is hugely under-shopped and, like many Scottish towns, the historic street pattern of one long high street with not a lot of depth behind it presents a challenge to developers.

“We came up with an innovative solution for one end of the street and we wish Kingsgate well with its solution, because Dunfermline deserves success and it will get it.”

With catchments rising, and comparison spending taking a leap, the east coast’s golden triangle may not have the glamour of nearby Edinburgh but, if it provides the right retail, it could well pull in the crowds.