Comment: Retail predictions for 2013

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It is said that there are two sorts of predictions: the lucky and the wrong. But I thought I should try my luck.

It is said that there are two sorts of predictions: the lucky and the wrong. But I thought I should try my luck. I last did this in Retail Week two years ago, predicting that 2011 would feature continued low interest rates, a “long-awaited, but still distant” recovery, growth in the value sector, difficult re-financings and few private equity deals. Maybe I should reprint that column now?

According to Capital Economics, GDP will grow in 2013 by 0.5%, CPI by 1.6%, average earnings by 1.6%, and there will be a 0.5% increase in real household disposable income. It all adds up to another depressing retail year.

So, with tongue very firmly in cheek, here are some less likely predictions:

January: fourth-quarter growth stops and the outlook weakens. Chancellor George Osborne blames the weather and tough Olympic comparatives.
February: the Bank of England keeps interest rates at a record low. However, several retailers go into administration as banks call in loans, claiming they need the money to advertise how much they are lending to British businesses.
March: figures show etail continues to take share from bricks and mortar. Marks & Spencer has another look at buying Ocado, but decides a store refit programme is more important.
April: retailers look beyond their next lease renewal to challenge their store portfolio. Secondary locations continue to decline, and the BRC calls for downwards-only rent reviews. Argos reiterates that it won’t close stores until leases expire, but renames them ‘Collection and Return Centres’.
May: retailers stop proclaiming that they are multichannel as someone points out that being online has been an essential part of retail for several years.
June: Morrisons says it has embraced the 21st century by developing a multichannel strategy.
July: Ocado eventually opens its second distribution centre, claiming that single channel is better than multichannel. It then runs into supply constraints and blames having only one channel.
August: Tesco announces plans to withdraw from the US, but claims the cost was worth it to develop Fresh & Easy as a global brand.
September: Mary Portas is made a Dame for services to the PR industry.
October: retailers realise that the quality of home delivery is as important as having a fancy website. Next-day delivery becomes the norm and same-day delivery the fastest growing option.
November: the Office of Fair Trading starts an investigation into Amazon, claiming it has discovered evidence that the internet can be used to buy things.
December: Sainsbuy’s boss Justin King decides not to succeed Bernie Ecclestone at Formula 1, preferring instead to follow Rafa Benitez in managing Chelsea Football Club.