Comment: What the year ahead has in store for retail

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There’s no such thing as a slow start to the year at the BRC. The day the office reopens in early January always ushers in feverish preparation for answering that multibillion pound question: how was Christmas for retailers?

The December Retail Sales Monitor is always awaited with nervous anticipation - it’s the first concrete indication of how the industry fared during its most crucial trading period, and the best starting point for mapping prospects and priorities for the year ahead.

We’d predicted a slow but steady start to seasonal spending, a last-minute surge amplified by many people taking the final two weekdays ahead of the big day off, and an overall result showing a reasonable improvement.

The data’s now at our disposal and broadly speaking we got it right. In December there was total growth of 1.8%, with double-digit growth in the final few days making up for a flat few weeks after Cyber Monday got the month off to a promising start.

And if online came of age in Christmas 2012, it graduated to new heights this time around. Nearly 20% of non-food products were bought on the web in December, and growth was the highest since March 2010.

With individual retailer results indicating soaring take-up of click-and-collect et al, and choice, convenience and swift delivery times deciding factors in drawing busy shoppers online and into stores, it’s clear that this Christmas was more about the unstoppable march of multichannel than ever before. And what does this all tell us about the year ahead?

I said going into 2013 that we were going to see more bumps in the track and that retailers’ sense of ‘running fast to stand still’ would continue.

While our figures and others back up a sense that the outlook is a little cheerier than this time last year, we can be under no illusions that the path to recovery will continue to be fragile, and retailers’ success will hinge on reading market conditions and staying in step with their customers’ changing habits and preferences.

It’s never less than a battleground, but many have said we saw a more competitive Christmas than ever before, as retailers responded to the conundrum of higher confidence levels not matched by more money in pockets. And after eight consecutive months of deflation I think that trend is set to continue, as retailers invest in price and value.

Overseas expansion and key opportunities for ‘Brand Britain’ to strengthen its foothold on the international stage is another certainty this year - UK retail export sales are already at £4bn and there’s research suggesting that this could increase to as much as £28bn by 2020.

I’d expect consumer confidence levels to continue to edge up in tandem with the overall economic recovery but, until that’s matched by more money in pockets, growth will be fragile.

Against this backdrop of challenges and change, it matters more than ever that the BRC continues to champion the industry so that retailers can succeed and make their full contribution to investment, jobs and growth. It’s been a busy start to the year, and I sense that’s going to set the standard for the rest of it.