‘Will 2025 be remembered as a year of retail leadership change?’

I’ve felt for several months that we are building towards a tipping point in the jobs market when chief executives and senior directors who guided their businesses through the Covid-19 pandemic will be preparing to step aside.

When I met my accountant recently he jokingly remarked on the significant amount of money I have been spending on coffee – always a sure sign that clients are starting to get itchy feet.

More seriously, we recently ran a LinkedIn poll on the career plans of senior directors. The results were striking. Almost two-thirds (65%) said they were actively looking for a new job this year. A further 11% said they may start looking this year, while 14% said they would be prepared to leave if the perfect job came up. That leaves just 10% who said they had no intention of leaving their current role.

Why a tipping point this year in particular? The answer lies in a leadership cycle that began with the discombobulating effect of the pandemic.

“Not only did it cause huge disruption in the immediate term, the pandemic also triggered a series of ripple effects that put paid to any notion of strategic change management”

As a rule of thumb the average tenure for a chief executive is around five years, the time it takes to formulate and execute your own strategy. Many of the current crop of retail chief executives arrived in post around the time that Covid-19 was uprooting the retail sector.

Not only did it cause huge disruption in the immediate term, but the pandemic also triggered a series of ripple effects – such as the rapid adoption of digital channels – that put paid to any notion of strategic change management and pushed leadership teams into a period of constant adaptation. Add in a chaotic and unpredictable political context and many retail leaders have effectively been in firefighting mode for much of the past five years.

Despite this, some businesses have admirably adapted to new consumer habits and delivering for their customers and shareholders. Certain retailers, such as Tesco, Next, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer, entered the new year on a firm footing following a strong set of Christmas results. Most of the fat that can be trimmed from the business has now been cut. The question then becomes, what else is left to achieve?

It would be understandable for leaders that have been in post since the pandemic to begin thinking about the next phase in their career. Simon Roberts will have been at the helm of Sainsbury’s for five years in March. Ken Murphy will reach the same landmark at Tesco in October.

To be clear, I am not suggesting these specific individuals will end up leaving post this year – just that they fit a broader trend I expect to see take shape.

“It would be understandable for leaders that have been in post since the pandemic to begin thinking about the next phase in their career”

One firm example is Nick Wilkinson, who announced his intention to step down from Dunelm in February after the homewares retailer recorded another sales rise in the first half and moved towards the opening of its 200th store. Wilkinson guided the business through the pandemic and after seven years in the role said it felt like the right time to step away from full-time executive life.

Wilkinson has reached the point in his career when experienced leaders go plural. That is, they have the opportunity to cash in their wealth of experience by seeking a number of non-executive and advisory roles. More than any other generation in recent memory, this cohort of leaders will have earned that opportunity given the pressures they faced during the post-Covid years.

Some may feel they have more to give in a chief executive role, either in or outside the current business. They will be conscious, however, of blocking the ambitions of senior colleagues – chief executives who stay on too long run the risk of a brain drain happening beneath them. They also risk stifling the development of fresh thinking about how retailers will need to serve their customers in 2030 and beyond.

Time will tell whether the five-year anniversary of the pandemic does indeed mark a changing of the guard. If I’m right, coffee shops are in for a bumper year.