Analysing data from 50 shopping centres owned by British Land, Landsec, Hammerson and Intu, UBS found 20% of total shopping centre floorspace is occupied by retailers already carrying out a CVA, in administration or suffering from declining sales growth.
UBS said this impact was “significantly higher than the companies’ reported rent impacted by CVAs, which ranges from 2.7% to 4.4% of rental income”.
The investment bank said this posed “long-term risks to the retail REITs, including lower rental growth prospects and higher vacancy” and could lead to a “vicious circle” of store closures, leading to “less pleasant” shopping experiences and further reduced foot traffic.
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