Golden quarter footfall and what it means – in charts

Most footfall data providers showed the number of visiting bricks-and-mortar locations either stable or down from the year before. The BRC-Sensormatic numbers showed footfall down 2.5% across the entire golden quarter while RetailNext figures showed a 0.6% drop. MRI Software’s OnLocation Footfall Index showed 0.4% growth for December.

Beyond this mixed-to-negative general picture, what lessons can be drawn from the reams of festive footfall data?

Retail parks remain solid

The retail park model is holding up better than other types of bricks-and-mortar destination.

Not only do MRI Software figures show that shopper visits were up year-on-year in every month of the golden quarter, they also show that December was marginally higher (0.2%) than pre-pandemic figures. Both high streets and shopping centres are down double digits on where they were in December 2019.

 “That’s a nod to how much they have diversified over the years to be able to attract people,” said Jenni Matthews, head of marketing at MRI Software. “They have a mix of grocery stores and non-essential stores, so it’s almost like a one-stop for everybody.” The free parking that many offer also helps, she added.

This might provide some explanation for some recent investment shifts. British Land recently announced a £240m outlay on retail parks as part of its plans to reinvest the £360m made from offloading Meadowhall in Sheffield.

Luxury held up at Christmas

High-end retailers held onto their footfall levels much better than the rest of the market in December, according to data shared by Sensormatic. While total retail declined by 2.2% in December, luxury brands increased by 0.8%. That reversed a trend seen in October and November, with luxury brands lagging the overall retail market. 

A lot of the month-on-month footfall and sales numbers were affected by a later-than-usual Black Friday (November 29). That meant the high-discount trading day was included in December’s figures for both the BRC-KPMG retail sales and BRC-Sensormatic footfall numbers, making November look a bit worse than it ultimately was.

That does little to explain the luxury figures though, given the extent to which high-end brands like Gucci and Louis Vuitton go to avoid discounts. The surprising uptick in footfall when retail more generally declined suggests that high-end brands had a particular Christmas lure for visitors this year.

It is not all about retail

There are lots of signs that leisure and socialising facilities are an increasingly vital part of the mix in traditional retail destinations.

Sensormatic’s headline shopping centre numbers measure the number of people passing the threshold of a retail store within a shopping centre. However, it also has additional data on how many people are entering the wider shopping complex. This captures those visiting with a reason beyond retail such as cinemas, food courts or anything else on offer.

What this data shows is that the decline in visitors is much more pronounced in the retail-only figures. In other words, the wider offering is proving more resilient.

The growing importance of leisure can also be tracked in the MRI Software numbers, which have shown a significant uplift in evening visits. This might not just be shoppers eating out or watching a film. Matthews says that MRI Software have noted a rise in competitive socialising activities such as mini golf or even virtual clay pigeon shooting. Operators of such attractions are increasingly taking up vacant units in shopping districts.

Events and major shopping centres draw faraway visitors

Last week, Active Intelligence, BT Group’s Insights Arm, launched a new insights platform based on a dataset derived from millions of mobile phone handsets. The new platform allows users to easily view insights on customer footfall and dwell time, alongside demographic data.

What its analysis of Christmas trading showed was that some festive events and activities provided a big draw, even for visitors from many miles away. For example, there was a 15% increase in the number of people travelling over 50 miles to visit the Edinburgh Christmas markets.

“What is perhaps surprising is just how far people are willing to travel,” says Steve Wiley, managing director at BT Active Intelligence. He cites data showing a significant volume of shoppers at the Trafford Centre come from Leeds or Liverpool, despite having major shopping centres much closer to home.

One clear trend over the festive season was that footfall rose on key shopping days such as Black Friday and Christmas Eve, despite the overall drop across the festive season. “Retailers will now need to look afresh to 2025 and chart a course to adopt innovative strategies to reverse this trend or maximise the sales potential of fewer visitors, finding new ways to make each store visit count,” said Andy Sumpter, retail consultant EMEA at Sensormatic.

Consumers are making priorities clear

While non-food retailers are struggling, supermarkets by contrast had a bumper festive season. Kantar data released on Monday showed that December was the busiest month for grocers since the pre-lockdown rush in March 2020. The average household made 17 separate trips to a supermarket that month.

From the data so far, clothing stores were much less of a draw for in-person shopping. According to RetailNext data, apparel and footwear suffered a 2% year-on-year decline across the quarter. Electronics, as well as jewellery and accessories posted similar declines.

Looking forward to 2025 Gary Whittemore, head of sales, EMEA and APAC at RetailNext said that retailers need to “robustly scrutinise their existing store offerings and envision how these will need to evolve to become more compelling.”