Comment: The grocery adjudicator is playing a long game

But this is more than simply part of that great British news cycle of setting up an institution only to tear it down later.

For Christine Tacon, the Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA) head, it will be the first public test of her organisation and opens it up to scrutiny just as much as it will be scrutinising Tesco. 

Commentators, industry analysts and politicians will be watching how the GCA conducts itself over the period of the investigation – likely to be at least nine months – and what it ultimately achieves. 

To add intensity to the scrutiny the GCA will inevitably be compared to the other regulators currently investigating Tesco, the Serious Fraud Office and the Financial Reporting Council.

The stakes are high all round, but for the GCA success will be determined by more than simply the outcome of the Tesco investigation.

At the end of last week, in an announcement which went largely unnoticed, Business Secretary Vince Cable and his Consumer Affairs Minister Jo Swinson announced their intention to introduce new powers for the GCA to beef up its ability to impose meaningful remedies when it finds a breach of the code. 

It was reportedly the subject of considerable internal Governmental wrangle between the Business Department and the Treasury – a battle the Treasury may now be relieved it lost. 

Cable’s proposal is to allow the GCA to levy a fine for code breach of up to 1% of turnover on large supermarkets.

This will require Parliamentary approval, and although this may (just) be achieved prior to the forthcoming general election the powers will not have been in place in time to apply to the GCA’s current inquiry into Tesco. 

In all the bad news for Tesco’s finances this could be breathing space worth just shy of £400m  – rather more than the cost of taking out adverts publicising the findings as the current remedies require.

At first glance, it may appear that GCA has acted precipitately for its own interests.

But I suspect a longer game is being played. 

A finding against Tesco – but without the power to sanction it severely – will serve to add such political clamour behind calls for extra GCA powers that an unstoppable momentum will be achieved in favour of the organisation. 

And politicians wouldn’t give extra powers to an organisation they didn’t have complete faith in would they?

Failure to prosecute the case successfully against Tesco without meaningful sanction will be embarrassing perhaps, but far from terminal for the long term prospects of the GCA.  

It will be a significant moment in the Tesco story cycle, for the supermarket sector, and for retail as a whole.

• James Gurling is managing director of MHP Corporate Affairs