For once, nobody would argue with retailers' traditional tendency to blame unseasonal weather for sending sales into a tailspin. But will this Christmas really be the worst the sector has endured in 25 years?
Many fashion groups are certainly being squeezed until the pips squeak, and since clothing accounts for such a significant proportion of the sector's overall turnover there will be an impact.
But, as we report in this week's issue, the bigger picture is mixed and some retailers expect a bumper festive period. For obvious reasons, the food boys should do well. Many specialist chains and some general merchandisers will also come out the other side pretty pleased with performance.
The real story of this Christmas may well be the extreme polarisation of winners and losers. Industry veteran Sir Geoff Mulcahy says: 'The consumer is under pressure and the recent interest rate hike will add to that, but the retailers I would really expect to be under pressure are those whose customer offer is not as strong as their competitors. As happens every year, performance this Christmas will reflect the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker, rather than the state of retail spending.'
Speaking off the record, the leaders of some of the UK's biggest retailers have made a similar point. They may not be expecting their best Christmas ever, but they are certainly not resigned to the worst result in a quarter century.
One effect of the widespread publicity given to retailers' difficulties will be that shoppers will lick their lips in anticipation of mouthwatering discounts this month.
They will be inclined to be more daring than ever in the annual game of Chicken with the shops, potentially putting off purchases until the high street is lit up by a blaze of serious promotional activity. That, of course, will make things even worse for those stores that are suffering already.
But hard-pressed retailers cannot afford to sit back and accept their fate. Today is only December 1 and there's a whole month of feverish consumption to come. If they cannot enjoy the best Christmas, store chiefs still have the opportunity to make it less bad.
Monsoon has appointed Vinod Dhawan, chairman of VK International and vice-chairman of India's Apparel Export Promotion Council, as a non-executive director.
Much was made of how valuable his global experience will be to the store group, which is rapidly growing overseas.
However, VK International is a supplier to Monsoon and the appointment of somebody so closely connected to the business, majority-owned by founder Peter Simon, will add to the unease felt by some minority investors that their voices will not be heard on a restructured board. Given the widespread conviction that Simon wants to take Monsoon's international business private, it is vital that minority shareholders' views are fully represented.
No comments yet