Making sense of the past seven days
There is a lot of talk about a miserable Christmas for retailers and for those in clothing or entertainment it is accurate.

But amid the gloom, one very good news story is being ignored - the tremendous performance of the grocery sector.

Today's TNS figures confirm that, with the exception of the unfolding horror story at Kwik Save, all the main grocers are sitting pretty. Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's are all increasing their share, Morrisons is on the road to recovery under Marc Bolland and Waitrose, along with its sister John Lewis department stores, is doing brilliantly.

Overall, the TNS figures reveal spend at grocery retailers nearly 5 per cent up on the comparable period last year: shoppers are visiting supermarkets more often and spending more when they do.

Part of the reason why the supermarkets are doing so well is that they are continuing to win share off other retail categories, particularly in the non-food market. Woolworths, WHSmith and Boots are all hurting, as are mid-market fashion retailers such as Next and Matalan, because they struggle to match the price and convenience of picking up clothes while on a trip to the supermarket.

But the strength of their performance is primarily about the grocers' core food market, which is changing as shoppers focus more on quality and less on price. One leading supermarket executive this week told me that, while he was cautious about identifying a paradigm shift, there was no doubt that shoppers are trading up, whether from value lines to standard, or shifting from mainstream brands to premium.

Whether or not it's down to Jamie Oliver, consumers are caring more about what they eat and about how it is produced. It is a trend the supermarkets are well-positioned to cash in on.

It's not just the supermarkets that are doing OK. While still mixed, the whispers in the market suggested that shoppers have been slowly getting into the Christmas mood over the past week. Next week's forecast for colder weather will also be welcomed by the clothing boys. It's still all up for grabs, but the odds on Richard Ratner's 'worst Christmas in 25 years' prophesy being proved right have decreased in the past seven days.

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