No one has really had a spectacular festive season, but anecdotally it seems that small like-for-like sales increases will be the order of the day when the Christmas trading statements start to emerge in January.
But once the music stops, the big question will be who's made any money this Christmas. Go into any multiple bookseller and there's no mistaking that sales volume is the priority, with profitability a distant second. It's a pattern being repeated in other sectors too.
So no one should be fooled about the challenges retail faces next year. The economic outlook remains uncertain and the pressure on consumer spending will only intensify. It is important that news of a better-than-expected Christmas does not reduce the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates.
While Christmas, for many, may have been better than feared, some retailers have been going through the mill this week. The outrageous behaviour of rebel Wyevale shareholder Laxey paid off yesterday, when it achieved its goal of ousting the capable chairman David Williams and two of his non-executive directors.
The future for Wyevale is unclear, but at least the arrival of Jim Hodkinson as chairman will ensure there is some retailing talent on the board alongside the property expertise of Laxey's nominee, Robert Ware. The key will
be if Hodkinson can keep the peace on the board.
Spare a thought too for staff at Unwins and MVC, both placed into administration this week. The blame for Unwins' collapse lies squarely at the door of owner DM Private Equity, which has been negligent in failing to ensure the stores had sufficient stock.
As for MVC, its sale by Woolworths to a consortium led by Argyll Partners in July always looked like a better deal for the seller than the buyer. MVC is a second-tier player in a weak sector - exactly where you don't want to be in times of such cutthroat competition.
There was a time earlier this year when private equity investors thought they could buy anything and turn it around. Those days are gone, and while there will still be more deals next year, there will also be more deals from the past two years going sour.
On that rather gloomy note, very best wishes from the Retail Week team for a successful and enjoyable Christmas, and a prosperous 2006.
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