What's the Verdict?

Not great news in the week that the most extraordinary wave of shopping centre openings anyone can remember kicks off.

The respected analyst claims that, by improving their tenant mix and environment, retail park sales will grow more than 23 per cent over the next five years, compared with less than 1 per cent in town centres.

An unwelcome conclusion for the developers of schemes like Highcross in Leicester, Liverpool One, Cabot Circus in Bristol or Westfield London. And for their tenants.

Hammerson's Leicester development – which opens this week – is an interesting case in point. If it is to be successful, it will need to win shoppers back from the UK's leading out-of-town scheme, Fosse Park, located by the M1 on the outskirts of the city.

Verdict's argument is that, while out-of-town locations are enduring a blip due to their reliance on big-ticket items, their accessibility and the space they provide means they have a brighter future than town centres.

Certainly, in-town schemes face their challenges. Good developments are one thing, but wider issues of accessibility, safety and environment in a town centre need to be addressed on a municipal level. And, as retailers move into new developments, there is always a danger that the streets they are leaving become desolate.

But I don't share Verdict's bearish view about the future of town centres. Good schemes like Birmingham's Bullring or Exeter's Princesshay create new destinations. The strength of lettings at the wave of new schemes opening this autumn shows that retailers have confidence in them too.

As competition from the web increases, retailing will more and more become a leisure activity that needs top-quality environments – and that trend bodes far better for buzzing town centres than retail parks. After all, however much investment they receive, the latter will never be a place people choose to hang out.