While Black Friday spend has been slightly subdued in the past couple of years due to low consumer confidence, a cost of living crisis, and the event typically falling before payday, this year is looking like a different story
Analysis by global professional services firm Alvarez and Marsal found that consumer enthusiasm for deals this Black Friday is at its highest level since 2020, with many shoppers searching for deals via Google weeks before the actual day.
After a slow start to the golden quarter, the retail sector will be hoping that customers will view this Black Friday as the time to start their spending with Christmas just around the corner.
With all that in mind, here’s how things stand on the first day of the Black Friday weekend.
Footfall stalls
The shopping phenomenon has become more of an online occasion in recent years steered on by the pandemic, but there is still a place for physical shops on Black Friday.
Data from MRI Software shows that as of 1pm on Black Friday, footfall across all UK retail destinations was 11.2% higher compared to last Friday, and only 0.5% lower than the same time on Black Friday last year.
Footfall in retail parks compared to 1pm last Black Friday was up 2% with shopping centre footfall up 1.2%. MRI Software marketing and insights director Jenni Matthews said this could be due to the attraction of free parking, brand variety, and leisure and hospitality choices.
Overall high street footfall was 2% lower than last year and visits to central London before 1pm on Black Friday was 0.5% higher than the same period last year.
“For many people, payday will have fallen today, which may be the final payday before Christmas, therefore, today’s Black Friday sales will provide them with ample opportunity to grab some festive bargains, which again is positive news for retailers and leisure/hospitality vendors,” added Matthews.
Increasingly online
Black Friday was once more of an in-store shopping phenomenon, with Cyber Monday traditionally being the day when customers would look online for last-minute deals. However, over the last few years, the entire period has increasingly moved online and this year appears to be no different.
Strategy and insights director at IMRG Andy Mulcahy says that the start of the Golden Quarter has been “woeful”, with spending since the week commencing November 17 down 22% – the worst levels seen since the depths of the Covid lockdowns.
While IMRG data shows this week has started slowly, with online sales down 4.2%, retailers can expect things to pick up today and over the rest of the weekend.
Mulcahy believes the fact that Black Friday will fall on payday for many consumers, combined with their desire to shop deals ahead of Christmas, means the sector can expect a bumper weekend.
“It feels like everything is pointing towards a massive Black Friday weekend,” he says. “Tomorrow is December 1, which is a psychological marker for people to start shopping. We could be looking at peak trading taking a similar shape to 2014/2015”.
Mulchay says he’s expecting so much shopping activity over the weekend that some retailer’s websites may well buckle under the pressure. “We could see one or two websites buckle under the strain, and carriers are likely to find that sudden level of demand challenging”.
Beauty and tech top shopping lists
In terms of how UK shoppers may spend, 48% of those surveyed in intelligence company Forter’s consumer report suggested they will use buy now pay later (BNPL) services for online Christmas shopping.
This is supported by data from Klarna showing that the Monday to Thursday before Black Friday saw total UK sales increase 35% compared with the same period last year.
Over the first six hours of Black Friday, total sales were up 30% year on year. The Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max was the most clicked-on item in the Klarna app over the past week, followed by Adidas Sambas and a PlayStation 5.
John Lewis said that over its Black Friday promotional period, Charlotte Tilbury’s Pillow Talk, Rituals’ The Ritual of Sakura and Chanel’s Coco Mademoiselle have dominated beauty sales.
In terms of apparel, sales of John Lewis’ own-brand cashmere is up 10% year on year, while sales of wearable tech products – such as Garmin smartwatches and Oura rings – are up 140% year on year.
According to TopCashback data, the most popular categories for spending during the morning of Black Friday have so far been across department stores, health and beauty and online marketplace websites.
The most sought-after brand offers so far have been through Argos, Currys, Boots and eBay, as consumers typically scour shops and websites for discounts on tech, home, beauty and electronics.
TopCashback UK director Adam Bullock said: “As expected, this Black Friday we’re seeing big and bold deals capturing the attention of shoppers across the UK.
“Our latest research highlighted that Brits were set to spend an average of £177 per person this Black Friday weekend, and it looks like they’re on track to do just that. We’ve seen spikes of up to 70% on our site compared to last Friday, with the biggest peak between 8 and 9am so far.”
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