In the words of an unkempt Irishman and a diminutive Scotsman, 'Do they know it's Christmas time at all?' While the words were originally sung by Bob Geldof and Midge Ure for very different reasons, the Live Aid song's lyrics could be asked of the UK shopping public as we face the final straight in the race to Christmas.

A straw poll of friends, family and colleagues reveals that, even today, the majority are yet to complete their Christmas shopping. Guilty as charged.

With only a week to go, the question is met with much eye-rolling and “I’m not sure where the time has gone”-type protestations. Mostly, people think the best high street bargains are yet to be had.

And who can blame them? The deferral of purchases by consumers this Christmas is inevitable. The lines are becoming increasingly blurred between fervent pre-Christmas discounting and post-Christmas Sales as retailers bring markdowns forward and shout more loudly about the depth of discounts in stores.

Only yesterday, Debenhams launched its last pre-Christmas Sale, which will run at discounts of up to 50 per cent until the end of the weekend. Marks & Spencer is also ramping up its promotional activity.

It is a vicious circle – one where retailers face the dilemma of potentially damaging customer loyalty by gaining the reputation of always being on Sale, and shifting slow-moving stock without the least damage to margins.

The evidence of the past few weeks and the collapse of Woolies provided a tough lesson in the importance for retailers of not becoming complacent and the need to react to their environment.

Fashion retailers that are in the value and young-fashion arena will fare better than the mid-market, the areas occupied by the likes of M&S, Bhs and Debenhams. If there ever was an indicator of the tough times, it is the news, anecdotally, that womenswear was down more than 30 per cent last week for M&S – a week in which it has not had a pre-Christmas Sale.

Nonetheless, Christmas will come as it always does and people will buy presents. However, it will come later than ever and sales will not be at the kind of levels recorded last year. This trend is one that will continue in 2009 according to retailer predictions and is likely to become the norm.

This week, the CBI revealed that half of retailers it polled forecast sales in January will be lower than a year ago. It follows the news that two thirds of retailers reported falling sales volumes in the first half of December versus a year ago.

So Christmas will be the culmination of a year in which the goal posts have fundamentally and irreversibly shifted for retailers and consumers alike, but it will not represent the end of the gloom.

It will, however, offer opportunities to those retailers who evolve to find their place in the changed environment.

We will see a leaner and meaner retail landscape in 2009, no question, and it will be filled with retailers that have kept the closest eye on costs, offered good multichannel options and above all injected value in to their offer.

So, here’s to a happy Christmas and new year and may the tills ring out at Christmas.

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