SuperGroup's first quarter sales: what the analysts say

“The lack of spring/summer stock continued, aggression from competitors is still a factor and the lack of traction achieved by the womenswear range was always unlikely to have changed.

“It has always been the case that Superdry is a better autumn/winter retailer than spring/summer, and therefore the weather, which was unseasonably dull in August (especially the days surrounding Hurricane Bertha), has helped. There are still questions to answer: it’s undoubtedly a promising start to Q2 but trading patterns are always volatile and it may be unwise to read too much into what is just a five-week period that was assisted by the weather.

“SuperGroup must still prove that it has evolved the range, that its ordering systems are sufficiently flexible to cope with fluctuations in demand, and that the womenswear range is back on trend. We accept that there are opportunities to build the brand overseas but with the uncertainties remaining, we think that a sector multiple is more appropriate for SuperGroup than a premium.”

Jonathan Pritchard, Eithne O’Leary and Anjli Shah from Oriel Securities

“SuperGroup’s slightly better-than-expected Q1 performance should reassure that the UK is solid and the long-term growth story intact. For the later five weeks as the new season ranges came in the industry generally benefitted from the colder snap and competitive pressures eased.

“Womenswear participation has also increased, which is encouraging after the weaker spring/summer collection. Sales momentum is, in our view, on the right trajectory to achieve our full-year PBT forecast of £72.3m though Christmas is key for full-year profits (c. 40% of retail sales). We continue to believe the valuation does not reflect the brand’s longer term growth potential in the UK and internationally.”

Kate Calvert, Investec

“As it matures, the fashion label hopes to have a wide spread of international outreach, and this aim will provide the focal point for forward planning. The company has announced several new stores in the pipeline, with a strong concentration in Western Europe. Superdry’s success plays into a narrative of 20 years of transition in the branded segment of the fashion industry. Its foundation is a range of highly targeted casualwear designs that aim to capture its affluent 18 to 30 audience.

“However, its popularity at outlets, both online and on the ground, indicates a loyal following among consumers with a more disciplined budget too. Furthermore, the ‘posh kid’ associations of companies such as Jack Wills, which can sometimes prove a deterrent, are not a problem for Superdry

“Lucid planning, particularly with regard to the international store portfolio, gives an idea of the ambitions of the company. Investment is ongoing but chief executive Julian Dunkerton is already confident of delivering profitable growth for the current year.

“Although it is still a dwarf in the international fashion market, it has already scaled up operations and, in the space of a year, has turned around its leadership, giving Superdry a much needed boost in terms of experienced management.”

Anusha Couttigane, Conlumino