Comment: Christmas trends point to retail’s ‘new normal’

The verdict on Christmas 2012 was in the end a microcosm of the retail year in general. In a few weeks it delivered the mixed picture we have become accustomed to, as consumer sentiment and overall sales provided a bleak landscape against which a number of success stories stood out.

British Retail Consortium figures showed UK retail like-for-like sales were up only 0.3% and 1.5% on a total basis for December. Figures from Visa, meanwhile, estimate shopper spend fell 1.7% year on year, an underwhelming end to a year when so many of the key statistical indicators failed to splutter into life.

However, there were a number of positive aspects. The rise of online sales reached a tipping point in the sector’s maturity.

And those looking for portents among the Christmas trends for how the next year will play out might identify these past few weeks as the moment online retail came of age. As 2013 unfolds, mobile in particular is bound to accelerate that change.

Meanwhile, a flurry of results from the likes of John Lewis, whose Christmas like-for-likes jumped 13%, House of Fraser, which had a record festive period, and Next all contradicted the broader malaise.

If you were seeking signs of a wider recovery you’d be disappointed, but these companies are providing the industry with much needed leadership and something close to a blueprint for what success looks like in 2013.

That direction will be critical as consumer sentiment stubbornly refuses to improve. The recent recession has not been followed by the rapid period of recovery that’s historically characterised the end of other downturns. In fact, the depressed trading conditions might easily extend beyond 2013, leading some to believe the low to no growth is here to stay.

However, there is a sense of a subtle shift in consumer attitude. Fear has been replaced by resignation and uncertainty by an acceptance of this ‘new normal’. It might sound like small consolation, but for retailers that have operated through uncertainty for four years, normalised conditions, no matter how tough, will be welcomed.

And, allied to growing clarity of what good retailing looks like under those circumstances, it offers a foundation from which to plan, invest and, most importantly, grow. All of which is reason to be cautiously confident when we here at Retail Week wish you a happy and prosperous new year.