‘As lockdown relaxes, retailers must pick up where they left off in 2019’

While each stage of the roadmap out of pandemic conditions is subject to government review, the omens look good.

The success of the UK vaccination programme means that just over 30 million people have received their first jab – around 57% of all adults – and this week people were able to begin socialising once again as meeting outside in groups of six was permitted and outdoor sports recommenced.

In less than a fortnight’s time, on April 12, the shutters come up on stores that have been closed all year – and there are encouraging signs that shoppers will be back, too.

Week on week, footfall rose 6.6% in the seven days to Saturday, March 27. Shopper numbers on high streets were up by the same proportion, retail parks advanced 9% and shopping centres 4.3%, according to the latest Springboard data.

Unsurprisingly, in the week of the anniversary of the first national lockdown, shopper traffic was ahead 68% year on year. 

But footfall numbers were still 57% below the same week in 2019 – a reminder of how much ground must still be made up. 

“Online penetration is likely to remain higher than before the crisis, so retailers are reopening in a changed buying environment”

It must be a case of if that ground is made up, rather than when. Ecommerce sales have continued to rise and last week’s Office for National Statistics data put online’s total share of retail at a record high of 36.1% during February – up from 20% last year. 

Etail sales growth may moderate after reopening but online penetration is likely to remain higher than before the crisis, so retailers are reopening in a changed buying environment.

Performance is also likely to be affected by other factors yet to fully play out, such as the persistence of working from home.

While many people will be glad to return to offices when they can, they probably won’t be going nearly as much as they were in the past. That means locations such as railway stations, c-stores where office workers frequently buy their lunches and the city centres that are home to a multitude of offices as well as shops may experience a dramatic pick-up in trade, which nevertheless may not match pre-pandemic levels.

Ongoing uncertainty over travel and holidays will also affect retail. While vaccination levels in Europe and other parts of the world remain comparatively low, it looks as if the number of foreign visitors to the UK may be down for a while yet.

As for Brits, after so long at home, how will they choose to spend when released? There is pent-up demand for bars and restaurants, leisure and cultural activities and holidays – domestic if not overseas – that will compete with retail.

So retailers will need to be on top form as they welcome shoppers once again. They need to be welcoming, safe, of course, stocked with the most exciting products and reigniting the appeal that only human contact can bring through excellent advice and personal service. If they do that, there are rewards to be reaped. 

Shops in England will be allowed to trade from 7am until 10pm from Monday to Saturday from April 12 and communities secretary Robert Jenrick has said that local authorities should not impose “unnecessary restrictions” on opening hours.

That should help draw back more cautious shoppers and give retailers a chance to put more money through the tills in locations where longer opening makes sense.

“The big test will ultimately not be whether sales rise year on year but, as with footfall, how do they compare to 2019?”

The reopening of outdoor hospitality, while an alternative draw for consumer spend, should also restore vibrancy and retailers are likely to benefit from associated footfall.

There is anecdotal evidence, too, from some multichannel retailers’ online operations that shoppers are keen to splash out on the new season’s fashions, not just on lockdown staples such as athleisure or home enhancement goods.

The big test will ultimately not be whether sales rise year on year but, as with footfall, how do they compare to 2019?

Grocery market monitor Kantar reported this week that food retailers’ sales were down 3% year on year over the last month. That is no surprise given that this time last year panic-buying was in full swing. Compared to 2019, however, grocery sales were still up 15.6%.

For other retailers, too, after 12 months of life interrupted and disrupted, comparisons against 2019 will be the real test of the extent to which ‘normality’ is restored.