Much of the country will emerge from lockdown this week facing more restrictions than when it began in November. However, as a new year approaches, retailers can afford to look forward with some optimism after a year of turmoil.
Life as it used to be remains a frustratingly distant prospect, but the industry has adapted to the so-called ‘new normal’ and is better positioned to make the most of what 2021 ushers in.
And whatever else it brings, there will certainly be ongoing volatility as the pandemic plays out.
When the latest English lockdown ends on December 2, big population and retail centres such as Birmingham and Manchester will be in tier three where the strictest measures will be in force. Areas formerly in tier one are now, in the main, coming out into tighter tier two rules.
But there’s one big difference. No matter what the tier, all retailers including those that formerly had to shut after being deemed ‘non-essential’ will be able to trade.
Yes, punishing restrictions on hospitality and the general nervy mood mean footfall to town and city centres may take time to recover. But with the expectation – and political ambition – of no further general lockdowns, and optimism that a vaccine will soon start to be distributed, retailers can proceed with some confidence that they can rebuild store trade from here on in.
“For retailers, the priority must be the present and immediate future. On that front they can expect some improvement in conditions that will help them”
They certainly can’t afford to take a Panglossian view. As he unveiled his spending review last week, chancellor Rishi Sunak warned that the Covid “economic emergency” has only just begun. The UK economy is expected to shrivel by 11.3% this year and the impact, including on jobs, will take years to unwind.
However, gory as that may be, it wouldn’t have taken Miss Marple to work out that the pandemic has dealt a shattering economic blow.
For retailers, the priority must be the present and immediate future. On that front they can expect some improvement in conditions that will help them, and help them do their bit to put the economy back on track.
The end of lockdown gives retailers the chance to win back some of the Christmas spend lost during the Golden Quarter to date. More importantly, they have some certainty as they plan for a new year.
Retailers and consumers are now used to the new ways of living and shopping that the Covid-19 outbreak heralded. Businesses are familiar with the requirements of safe trading, whether in store or in distribution centres, and they have ramped up online capacity.
They are well-placed to win spend from consumers also familiar with the changed ways in which shops operate and, while still cautious, yearning for more freedom and more fun – both looking a little bit closer following the good news on vaccines, even though widespread vaccination will take time.
“But, despite ongoing restrictions and uncertainty, there is only one direction of travel now for retail sales – up”
There will be upsets to come and some of the changes brought by the outbreak and lockdown will be permanent. It’s hard to see, for instance, working arrangements ever returning to what they were before. Retailers will need to address the radical changes to established footfall patterns in major cities that shift is likely to bring.
But, despite ongoing restrictions and uncertainty, there is surely only one direction of travel now for retail sales – up.
In its response to the tier announcements, business body the Confederation of British Industry observed that “retail can begin to reopen and look towards a recovery”.
Retailers cannot afford to worry about, and cannot solve, the problems that cast a dark shadow over the wider economy.
Retail has always been the most pragmatic of industries and that will stand it in good stead. As conditions change, retailers should redouble their efforts to serve customers as effectively as possible, in ways new and old – then the tills will start properly ringing again.
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