Shopify predicts the top trends for high street retailers this Christmas

With Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending up year on year and bricks-and-mortar spending increasing 28% compared to 2022, according to Shopify’s Black Friday Cyber Monday 2023 report, the festive season is looking promising for high street retailers.

What do the results of Black Friday tell us about consumer spending and trends set to dominate this festive period?

Shopify EMEA managing director Deann Evans breaks down the key trends and predictions across consumer confidence, spending expectations, popular products and the revival of bricks and mortar for the 2023 Christmas trading period.

Value vs quality

Value will continue to be at the front of consumers’ minds this Christmas and remain a priority amid the cost-of-living crisis, with 68% of consumers citing cost as the biggest reason to switch brands, according to Shopify’s survey.

Despite this, 41% of consumers noted product quality as a driving factor for switching brands, demonstrating that quality closely follows value as a top priority for gifting.

Evans says Black Friday provided evidence of consumers being careful with their spending but above all else, seeking value for money.

“Whilst many predicted a particularly challenging period for retailers as consumers tighten their purse strings, our data this Black Friday, which sets a new record, reinforces its importance as a positive revenue moment for merchants,” she says.

“More than ever, shoppers want their money to go further so they were ready to spend during the Black Friday weekend to get more value for money. Brands who continue to embrace this opportunity in the run-up to Christmas stand to benefit as shoppers make the most of festive deals. Gymshark, which was among those with top trending products with their Crest Joggers, is setting a great example here.”

A return to stores

It has been a milestone year for the return to bricks-and-mortar shopping, with new stores popping up across the country featuring new and innovative elements to draw in consumers. As we reach the peak of Christmas trading, Evans says bricks-and-mortar shopping is showing no sign of slowing down.

Evans says high street stores are becoming increasingly important touchpoints for shoppers and retailers that have invested in the in-store experience this year are likely to benefit over the Christmas period.

“When it comes to location, bricks-and-mortar shopping is set for a strong holiday season, as in-store spending surged 28% in the UK compared to last year, based on POS sales made by Shopify merchants,” she says.

“High street stores are also an increasingly important touchpoint for shoppers, with 89% being more or just as likely to discover products by browsing in a shop than they were a year ago. Retailers should not underestimate the importance of their in-store experience at such a crucial time for business.”

As well as this, social media shopping is also set for a strong Christmas as Shopify’s survey data shows more shoppers are open to buying products through social media than ever before, with one in three open to purchasing directly via Instagram.

Communication is key

A key takeaway from this year’s Black Friday was the value of retailers engaging directly with customers. Shopify’s data shows engaging with consumers ahead of trading was “critical” for business success as 70% of British shoppers said it was important for a brand to communicate its offers ahead of time.

Evans tells Retail Week there is a clear intention for consumers to spend over the festive period but with Christmas spanning a longer period than Black Friday, communication is arguably more important than ever before.

Evans says: “From our data, consumer confidence has remained but with more intentionality than in recent years, as Brits have tactically used the past few months to save in preparation for spending during the holiday season.

“What’s more, 53% of UK shoppers have been putting aside more money each month than they have in previous years; so beyond Black Friday and Cyber Monday, we see a clear intention for consumers to spend over the festive period.”

With a third of all respondents to the survey saying engagement from businesses is “very important”, it should be a top priority for retailers to inform customers of offers ahead of time to retain a competitive advantage.

The categories set to dominate

Shopify’s report shows apparel and accessories are the most popular categories this year for Christmas gifting, with the best-performing categories on Black Friday most likely to continue through to Christmas.

“Regarding what consumers are spending their money on, our data shows the top five product categories by orders over the Black Friday weekend were apparel and accessories, health and beauty, home and garden, arts and entertainment, and food and beverage,” says Evans.

“We expect this to be a similar picture for Christmas.”

With fashion, beauty and homeware products topping the charts, the Christmas period is looking bright for many retailers across the industry.