Data: Grocery sales fall as shopping patterns normalise amidst looming price battle

For the 12 weeks to January 23, take-home grocery sales slipped 3.8%, reflecting tough year-on-year comparisons when the country was last mired in its longest period of lockdown. The two-year comparisons show that grocery spending for the period was up 8%. 

Falling sales come amidst a backdrop of growing food price inflation. The latest Kantar grocery market share data found that food price inflation stands at 3.8% over a four-week period – a 0.3 percentage point increase from December. 

Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “Prices are rising on many fronts and the weekly shop is no exception. Like-for-like grocery price inflation, which assumes that shoppers buy exactly the same products this year as they did last year, increased again this month. 

“Taken over the course of a 12-month period, this 3.8% rise in prices could add an extra £180 to the average household’s annual grocery bill. We’re now likely to see shoppers striving to keep costs down by searching for cheaper products and promotions. Supermarkets that can offer the best value stand to win the biggest slice of spend.”

McKevitt said that the most recent Kantar figures don’t include food-to-go and drink purchases, which are both on the rise as customer behaviour normalises. 

“Increasing confidence about heading out and about, combined with the return to the office, means we’re starting to see pre-pandemic shopping patterns once again. Since the first lockdown in March 2020, shoppers have been buying in bulk and visiting the supermarket less often. But basket sizes are now 10% smaller than this time last year, hitting their lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while footfall increased by 5% as every major retailer was busier in their stores. 

“Changing habits were most marked in London, where take-home sales of food and drink decreased by 11%. This suggests that people in the capital were the quickest to embrace eating out in cafés, pubs and restaurants as many of us returned to city centres.”

McKevitt said that while online sales were down 15% year on year, they were almost double pre-pandemic levels at 12.5%.

The discounters on manoeuvres 

Only three grocers recorded year-on-year sales growth for the period, but every single grocer boosted its sales over the past two years.

Lidl and Aldi recorded simultaneous growth for the first time since June last year. Lidl was in fact the fastest-growing grocer during the period, increasing sales 1.2% and market share by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% for the period. 

Aldi gained an additional 1.1 million shoppers over the past 12 weeks, helping its share grow by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8%, while the grocer’s sales rose by 1.1%. 

Both Tesco and Waitrose performed ahead of the market over the past 12 weeks and increased share. Tesco’s share moved up from 27.3% last year to 27.9%, while Waitrose saw the greatest footfall increase of any supermarket, helping its share increase by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%.