Grocery sales in the past month slumped as food inflation jumped to its highest level since last summer and the average cost of Christmas dinner surged.

Take-home grocery sales fell 3.8% in the 12 weeks to November 28, 2021, as the sector continued to annualise strong comparables from last year and the UK’s second national coronavirus lockdown, according to the latest Kantar grocery market share data. 

While the figures have fallen year on year, Kantar said grocery sales were 7% higher for the same period in 2019.

Head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “Grocery sales are now being compared against November 2020 when we had tighter restrictions across Scotland and Wales and the second lockdown in England. Circumstances are very different this year.

“With people back in the office a few days a week and restaurants and cafés open, we’re putting less in our grocery baskets for cooking at home and as a result the average shop size has shrunk by 8% this month versus last year.”

Kantar also noted that food inflation during the month of November hit 3.2%, its highest level since June 2020. 

“Inflation is already nudging up the price of Christmas dinner staples. The average cost of a meal for four is now £27.48, that’s an increase of 3.4% compared with last year” 

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, Kantar

“Inflation is already nudging up the price of Christmas dinner staples. The average cost of a meal for four is now £27.48, that’s an increase of 3.4% compared with last year,” said McKevitt.

“Across the board, grocery prices are up 3.2% in the latest four weeks, the highest rate of inflation we’ve recorded since June 2020. 

“Consumer behaviour hasn’t caught up with these changes though. Habits we’d expect to see a shift, like swapping branded products for own label or seeking out promotions, haven’t altered just yet.”

McKevitt also said that while online food sales had slipped 12.5% in November, he expected customers to move back online due to the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. 

Tesco surges ahead

In terms of overall market share, Tesco surged ahead during the 12-week period by 0.7 percentage points, the retailer’s biggest jump over 12 weeks since 2007.

Discounters Lidl and Aldi also enjoyed bumper periods, with the former hitting a new record market share of 6.4%. Aldi won a 0.2 percentage point increase in the market to take its overall share hitting 7.9%. 

 

Sainsbury’s now holds a 15.4% share of the market, Asda 14% and Morrisons 10%. Waitrose’s market share was steady at 4.9%, while Co-op now stands at 6.1% and Iceland at 2.3%.

Sales at Ocado fell 2.4% year on year, but have grown 35% overall in the past two years.

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