Data: Grocery sales fall in October as Kantar predicts big shop is here to stay

Take-home grocery sales fell 1.9% in the 12 weeks to October 31, 2021, although the overall figure is still 7.8% higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest market share figures from Kantar. 

The data found that households visited the supermarket 15.7 times in October on average – a slight increase from the 15.3 trips seen during the same period in 2020, but representing 40 million fewer trips per month than in 2019.

The data also showed that online sales have continued to level out. Kantar head of marketing and insights Fraser McKevitt said: “For the second month in a row, digital sales accounted for 12.4% of the total grocery market. A fifth of households consistently order groceries online each month, becoming long-term converts.”

While rising Covid-19 cases in the UK do not appear to be affecting how often people shop for groceries in stores, Kantar said it was affecting what people were buying, noting an uptick in healthcare products to help manage symptoms of winter colds and flu.

McKevitt said: “As we head into winter, consumers are stocking up on products to help them feel better. Sales of cold treatments this month doubled compared with last year, while cough liquids shot up 147%.”

In what should be a boon for retailers heading into Christmas, the data also found that customers are “gearing up for bigger and better celebrations” this year.

An unrestricted Halloween drove sales of pumpkins up 26% in October, while seasonal confectionery sales grew 27%. 

“With Christmas ads out earlier than ever and Christmas stock on the shelves, we’re keen to prepare early this year so we can dive headfirst into festivities,” added McKevitt.

“4.7 million households bought mince pies this month. Customers are also getting ahead on shopping for the big day itself. Frozen poultry sales are 27% higher year on year, with people spending an additional £6.1m in the latest four weeks.

“1.6 million households bought their Christmas pudding this month as well, 400,000 more than last year.”

Kantar noted that grocery inflation hit 2.1% in the last month, which could force customers to begin seeking out better value elsewhere in the market. 

Tesco bucks the downwards trend

The UK’s largest grocer, Tesco, was the only one of the big national chains to buck the sales decline during the period, recording year-on-year growth of 0.3% for the 12 weeks to the end of October. 

Kantar said that nearly three-quarters of the population visited a Tesco at some point during the period, helping it gain market share for the 10th month in a row, adding 0.6% to 27.6% of the total market. 

While Lidl’s sales remained flat compared with last year, the grocer performed ahead of the market to nudge up share by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%.

Aldi also increased its share of total grocery sales by 0.1 percentage points and it now holds 7.9% of the market.

Iceland’s market share remained steady at 2.3% this period. Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons’ market shares were 15.2%, 14.3% and 10% respectively.

Co-op’s market share now stands at 6.3% and Waitrose’s is 5%.