Data: Grocery sales and basket sizes fall as lockdown impact unwinds

In a month when indoor hospitality was allowed to reopen, grocery sales for the 12 weeks to May 16 fell 0.4%, according to the latest Kantar grocery market share data. 

Despite this dip, Kantar said grocery sales were still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels with an additional £3.8bn going through the tills in the period compared with 2019 levels. 

Basket sizes also fell for the third straight month, while average spend per trip was at its lowest level since March 2020 as shoppers began to move away from the pandemic-influenced big weekly shop.

Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “As lockdown eases, people are returning to more normal habits and we can see that reflected in grocery sales.

“Many of us this time last year were eating all our meals at home and we bought extra food and drink as a result. Now we’re seeing take-home grocery sales dip versus 2020 as people are able to eat in restaurants, pubs and cafes, and can pick up food on the go again, grabbing a sandwich, for example, while they’re out and about at the weekend.

“We’re seeing take-home grocery sales dip versus 2020 as people are able to eat in restaurants, pubs and cafes, and can pick up food on the go again”

Fraser McKevitt, Kantar

“While not captured in these take-home figures, on-the-go grocery sales look set to be a significant driver of growth for supermarkets over the next few months.  

“As the vaccine roll-out moves full steam ahead, consumers are getting more confident about venturing back out to stores.

“Shoppers made 58 million more visits to the supermarket this period than they did in May 2020. The greatest acceleration has been in London, where trips are up by more than a quarter.

“In other changes, there are signs that the big weekly shop, which made a comeback last year while people tried to reduce time spent outside of home, may be on its way out. Basket sizes have fallen for three months in a row and the average price of a trip to the grocery store over the month to May 16 is £22.82, the lowest since March last year.”

Kantar also noted that online grocery sales fell down to 13.4% from 13.9% in April, although ecommerce sales remain much higher than 2019 levels. 

Sales at chain and independent convenience stores also slipped, down to 12.5% from a high of 14.9% in May 2020. 

Discounters on the march

For a second straight month, both Aldi and Lidl grew market share after enduring tougher lockdowns than their big four competitors – with sales up 5.2% and 4.6% respectively.

Both retailers’ relatively limited ecommerce offerings had hampered the discounters’ growth during the pandemic, but Kantar said “the tide has turned [during] this period” with Aldi’s market share growing 0.4 percentage points to 8.1% and Lidl’s by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2%.

The big four all also grew market share, with Asda being the biggest winner during the period, up by 1.9% over the 12 weeks and share increasing to 14.4% from 14.1% last year.

Sainsbury’s grew sales by 0.7%, while Morrisons was up by 0.3% and Tesco sales remained flat versus last year. All secured an additional 0.1 percentage point of share.

While Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer during the period, Kantar said its sales substantially slowed year on year to 15.4%.

“Convenience stores also benefited from the return of on-the-go food and drink sales – representing additional growth that is not captured in these take-home figures”

Fraser McKevitt, Kantar

McKevitt said: “Tough annualisation because of an exceptional 2020 meant spend at symbols, independent retailers and the Co-op was down in comparison with last year, but remained in double-digit growth against the more typical sales of 2019.

“Convenience stores also benefited from the return of on-the-go food and drink sales – representing additional growth that is not captured in these take-home figures.

“It’s a similar story at Iceland, which saw sales boom in 2020 as shoppers stocked up on frozen food, making growth harder to come by this year.”

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