Grocery sales and average basket sizes both fell over the summer as shoppers showed a return to pre-pandemic behaviours.
Grocery sales for the 12 weeks to September 5 fell by 1.9% year-on-year according to the latest figures from Kantar grocery market share data.
Despite this drop, sales remain 8.7% higher than pre-pandemic levels as consumers cautiously return to normality.
Kantar recorded the highest uptick in supermarket footfall the first week of September as commuters started travelling back to offices and children started the new school year - indicating that shopping habits may be poised to change over the next few months.
Supermarkets start to bounce back
Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: There are big lifestyle changes on the horizon with commuters heading back to the office and the return to school this autumn, and we’d expect this to impact how people shop.
“In the first week of September we measured the highest supermarket footfall all year outside of the Easter period with more people out and about picking up items as they go.
“That suggests a hint of change, and could see shoppers shun the ‘big shop’ in favour of more frequent top up buying. But we shouldn’t expect to shift from habits learned in lockdown straight back to pre-Covid patterns overnight. It’s most likely that the needle will settle somewhere in between.”
Kantar noted that average basket values online in particular are indicating this change, down £17 compared with the first lockdown.
The trend for shopping online has also shifted - the market share data of online grocery has fallen to 12.2% in September from 13% 4 weeks ago - the lowest since May 2020.
McKevitt added: “We are already tracking signs of fatigue when it comes to home cooking. Sales of chilled ready meals, for example, increased by 11% this month as consumers’ lives get busier again.
“More people returning to towns and cities should also provide a boost for cafés and coffee shops, where spending last September was £187 million lower* than in 2019.
“We anticipate that a good amount of that lost cash should return to the high street this year but that means it will move away from the grocery sector.”
Prices on the rise
Kantar figures reveal that prices are beginning to rise across the grocery sector, with fewer shoppers able to take advantage of deals.
Like-for-like grocery prices rose 1.3% through the last four weeks of the period compared with last year, as in-store promotions reached “record lows”.
McKevitt said: “For much of 2021 shoppers have been shielded from price increases, with more being sold on promotion this year compared to 2020. But in the past month only 27.5% of spending was done on deals.
“Other than the early days of lockdown last year, that is the lowest level recorded in the 15 years which we have tracked this data, with retailers aiming to offer everyday low prices instead.”
Winners and losers on high street
Shoppers seeking deals therefore headed towards the discounters - Aldi’s market share rose by 0.1% to 8.1%, attracting more new customers than any other supermarket during the 12 week period.
Lidl also made gains, with its market share up 6.1%, while shares at Ocado, Co-op and Iceland all fell.
Waitrose’s market share rose for the fifth consecutive time up 5.1% - spend was up both online and in-store at the supermarket by 2.2% in the 12 week period.
McKevitt noted the interest across the board from private equity investors towards other key supermarket players.
He said: “Private equity interest in Morrisons has been driven in part because it was the fastest-growing of the four major retailers in 2020, but it has fallen back this year because of a tough comparison with the success of 12 months ago.
“Asda meanwhile is looking at its role in the convenience market and recently announced its intention to launch its new ‘On the move’ garage forecourt stores.
“There is a huge opportunity in that sector to tap into the 3.7 billion take-home grocery trips of less than £20 made every year. Its market share now stands at 14.3%.”
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